Publications

  • The 1/d Law of Giving

    Leeat Yariv; Jacob K. Goeree; Margaret A. McConnell; Tiffany Mitchell; Tracey Tromp
    Journal Article
  • Abstention in elections with asymmetric information and diverse preferences

    Timothy J. Feddersen; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • 'Acting Wife': Marriage Market Incentives and Labor Market Investments

    Leonardo Bursztyn; Thomas Fujiwara; Amanda Pallais
    Journal Article
  • Advice and Consent: Senate Responses to Executive Branch Nominations, 1885-1996

  • Appointment, reelection, and autonomy in the senate of Chile

  • The appointments dilemma

    Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    In a separation of powers political system, effective bureaucratic control may be undermined by the fact that the power to appoint bureaucrats is controlled by a different set of principals from those that may control them through statutory or budgetary means. In particular, executives have proposal power over bureaucratic appointments and...
  • Are conservatives overconfident?

    Pietro Ortoleva; Erik Snowberg
    Journal Article
    Recent studies suggest psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, including that conservatives are more overconfident. We use a behavioral political economy model to show that while this is undoubtedly true for election years in the current era, there is no reason to believe that conservative ideologies are intrinsically linked...
  • Asymmetric information and agenda control: The bases of monopoly power in public spending

    Radu Filimon; Thomas Romer; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
  • Balanced Growth Despite Uzawa

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; E Oberfield; T Sampson
    Journal Article
  • Bargaining and Uncertainty in World Politics

    Kristopher Ramsay
    Thesis
    As many crises do not evolve into full scale conflict, and almost all conflicts end short of war, an important question is how states manage uncertainty? This thesis investigates the relationships between uncertainty, rhetoric, alliances, and combat. The thesis consists of four articles. Much ado about nothing? Diplomacy, war, and the incentive to...
  • Bayesian learning and the pricing of new information: evidence from prediction markets

  • Belief in a just world and redistributive politics

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • Between free trade and protectionism: strategic trade policy and a theory of corporate trade demands

  • "BIG" Treaties, Small Effects: The RTAA Agreements

    Joanne Gowa; Raymond Hicks
    Journal Article
    It seems obvious that agreements to cut tariffs will raise trade between their signatories. But recent studies show that some agreements widely considered to be landmarks in economic history had either a remarkably small impact on trade or none at all. Among those agreements are the Cobden-Chevalier Treaties and the long series of tariff accords...
  • Bones of Contention: The Political Economy of Height Inequality

    Carles Boix; Frances Rosenbluth
    Journal Article
    Human osteological data provide a rich, still-to-be-mined source of information about the distribution of nutrition and, by extension, the distribution of political power and economic wealth in societies of long ago. On the basis of data we have collected and analyzed on societies ranging from foraging communities to the ancient Egyptian and...
  • Bonus Culture: Competitive Pay, Screening, and Multitasking

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • A bridge to somewhere: mapping state and congressional ideology on a cross-institutional common space

    Boris Shor; Christopher Berry; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    Researchers face two major problems when applying ideal point estimation techniques to state legislatures. First, longitudinal roll-call data are scarce. Second, even when such data exist, scaling ideal points within a single state is an inadequate approach. No comparisons can be made between these estimates and those for other state legislatures...
  • Bright minds, big rent: gentrification and the rising returns to skill

    L Edlund; C Machado; MM Sviatschi
    Journal Article
  • Bureaucratic Capacity, Delegation, and Political Reform

    John D. Huber; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    We analyze a model of delegation & policymaking in polities where bureaucratic capacity is low. Our analysis suggests that low bureaucratic capacity diminishes incentives for bureaucrats to comply with legislation, making it more difficult for politicians to induce bureaucrats to take actions that politicians desire. Consequently, when...
  • Bureaucratic decisions and the composition of the lower courts

  • Bureaucrats versus voters: On the political economy of resource allocation by direct democracy

  • Cabinet decision rules and political uncertainty in parliamentary bargaining

  • The Calculus of the Security Dilemma

    Avidit Acharya; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Some scholars known as offensive realists claim that in the uncertainty of world politics, trust and cooperation between states is extremely unlikely. Others, such as defensive realists, claim that rational states are capable of finding ways to counteract the complications created by misperceptions and distrust, and to reduce uncertainty to levels...
  • Can informed public deliberation overcome clientelism? Experimental evidence from Benin

  • Can Words Get in the Way? The Effect of Deliberation in Collective Decision Making

    Matias Iaryczower; Xiaoxia Shi; Matthew Shum
    Journal Article
    © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. We quantify the effect of deliberation on the decisions of US appellate courts. We estimate a model in which strategic judges communicate before casting their votes and then compare the probability of mistakes in the court with deliberation with a counterfactual of no communication. The...
  • Career Concerns and the Dynamics of Electoral Accountability

    Matias Iaryczower; Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma; Adam Meirowitz
    Journal Article
  • Cautious expected utility and the certainty effect

    S Cerreia‐Vioglio; D Dillenberger; Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
  • The center still holds: liberal internationalism survives

    Stephen Chaudoin; Helen V. Milner; Dustin H. Tingley
    Journal Article
    Recent research, including an article by Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz in this journal, has argued that the United States' long-standing foreign policy orientation of liberal internationalism has been in serious decline because of rising domestic partisan divisions. A reanalysis of the theoretical logic driving these arguments and the...
  • Centralization of bargaining and wage inequality: A correction of Wallerstein

    Miriam A. Golden; John B. Londregan
    Journal Article
  • Changing capabilities, uncertainty, and the risk of war in crisis bargaining

    Brett V. Benson; Adam Meirowitz; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Understanding how changes to war-fighting technology influence the probability of war is central to security studies. Yet the effects of changes in the distribution of power are not obvious. All else equal, increasing a country's power makes it more aggressive when making demands or more resistant to accepting offers, but all else is not equal....
  • The Charmed Life of Superstar Exporters: Survey Evidence on Firms and Trade Policy

    Iain Osgood; Dustin Tingley; Thomas Bernauer; In Song Kim; Helen V. Milner; Gabriele Spilker
    Journal Article
    What factors determine firms' attitudes toward trade policy? This paper considers producers' policy preferences and political behavior in light of two key patterns in modern international trade: industries that face import competition often have many exporters, and foreign sales are concentrated in the hands of a small number of "superstar"...
  • Cheap Talk Diplomacy, Voluntary Negotiations, and Variable Bargaining Power

    Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    It is well known that during a crisis, unitary rational states have an incentive to misrepresent their true resolve and willingness to go to war. This theoretical result has been taken to imply that diplomacy, interpreted as pre-bargaining communication, can have no effect on the way crises play out. This paper shows an intuitive way that...
  • Child-adoption Matching: Preferences for gender and race

    Mariagiovanna Baccara; Allan Collard-Wexler; Leonardo Felli; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    This paper uses a new dataset on child-adoption matching to estimate the preferences of potential adoptive parents over US-born and unborn children relinquished for adoption. We identify significant preferences favoring girls and against African American children put up for adoption. These attitudes vary in magnitudes across different adoptive...
  • The choice among aid donors: The effects of multilateral vs. bilateral aid on recipient behavioral support

  • Choosing peers: Homophily and polarization in groups

    Mariagiovanna Baccara; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    This paper studies the formation of peer groups entailing the joint production of public goods. In our model agents choose their peers and have to pay a connection cost for each member added to the group. After groups are formed, each agent selects a public project to make a costly contribution to, and all members of the group experience the...
  • Citizen preferences and public goods: comparing preferences for foreign aid and government programs in Uganda

    Helen Milner; Daniel L. Nielson; Michael G. Findley
    Journal Article
    Different theories about the impact of aid make distinct predictions about citizens' attitudes toward foreign aid in recipient countries. We investigate their preferences toward aid and government projects in order to examine these different theories. Are citizens indifferent between development projects funded by their own government versus those...
  • Clearinghouses for two-sided matching: An experimental study

    Federico Echenique; Alistair J. Wilson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
  • Clientelism and vote buying: lessons from field experiments in African elections

    Pedro C. Vicente; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    Electoral clientelism and vote buying are widely perceived as major obstacles to economic development. This is because they may limit the provision of public goods. In this paper, we review the literature on clientelism and vote buying and propose the use of field experiments to evaluate empirically the consequences of these phenomena. We provide...
  • Clientelism and voting behavior: evidence from a field experiment in Benin

  • The Coase conjecture

    Faruk Gul
    Book Chapter
  • Collective dynamic choice: The necessity of time inconsistency

    Matthew O. Jackson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We study collective decisions by time-discounting individuals choosing a common consumption stream. We show that with any heterogeneity in time preferences, every Pareto efficient and non-dictatorial method of aggregating utility functions must be time-inconsistent. We also show that decisions made via non-dictatorial voting methods are...
  • Collective Hold-Up

    Matias Iaryczower; Santiago Oliveros
    Journal Article
  • Collective self-control

    Alessandro Lizzeri; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    Behavioral economics presents a "paternalistic" rationale for intervention by a benevolent government. This paper studies the desirability of various forms of collective action when government decisions are determined via the political process in response to votes by time inconsistent voters. We consider an economy where the only "distortion" is...
  • Collusion through communication in auctions

    Marina Agranov; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We study the extent to which communication can serve as a collusion device in one-shot first- and second-price sealed-bid auctions. In an array of laboratory experiments we vary the amount of interactions (communication and/or transfers without commitment) available to bidders. We find that communication alone leads to statistically significant...
  • Commerce and Conflict: New Data about the Great War

    Joanne Gowa; Raymond Hicks
    Journal Article
    The First World War is often cited as proof par excellence of the flaws in the liberal peace argument because the adversaries it engaged had been each other's major pre-war trading partners. Although commonly assumed to have wreaked havoc on the trade of the states it engaged, the war's impact on commerce has rarely been rigorously examined. Using...
  • Commitment and the campaign contribution contract

    Nolan McCarty; Lawrence S. Rothenberg
    Journal Article
  • Common Belief Foundations of Global Games

    Stephen Morris; Hyun Song Shin; Muhamet Yildiz
    Journal Article
    We study coordination games under general type spaces. We characterize rationalizable actions in terms of the properties of the belief hierarchies and show that there is a unique rationalizable action played whenever there is approximate common certainty of rank beliefs, defined as the probability the players assign to their payoff parameters...
  • The Common Priors Assumption: A Comment on 'Bargaining and the Nature of War'

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    In a recent article in this journal, Smith and Stam (2004) call into question the usefulness and applicability of what is know as the common priors assumption in the modeling of countries' strategic behavior in international relations. While the authors of this comment acknowledge that it is possible to incorporate noncommon priors in models of...
  • Communism's Shadow: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Political Attitudes

  • Communist socialization and post-communist economic and political attitudes

    Grigore Pop-Eleches; Joshua A. Tucker
    Journal Article
    We investigate the effect of individual exposure to communism on support for democracy and capitalism. We examine whether this effect varies across different types of communism, at different periods of people's lives, in different countries, and across different types of individuals. To do so, we propose a modified approach to solving the APC...
  • Competing for loyalty: The dynamics of rallying support

    Matias Iaryczower; Santiago Oliveros
    Journal Article
    We consider a class of dynamic collective action problems in which either a single principal or two competing principals vie for the sup-port of members of a group. We focus on the dynamic problem that emerges when agents negotiate and commit their support to princi-pals sequentially. We show that competition reduces agents' welfare with public...
  • The conditional nature of presidential responsiveness to public opinion

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Kenneth W. Shotts
    Journal Article
  • Conformity in the lab

    Jacob K. Goeree; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We use a revealed preference approach to disentangle conformity, an intrinsic taste to follow others, from information-driven herding. We provide ob- servations from a series of sequential decision-making experiments in which sub- jects choose the type of information they observe before making their decision. Namely, subjects choose between...
  • Contestable Leadership: Party Leaders as Principals and Agents

    Matias Iaryczower
    Journal Article
    This paper examines the institutional determinants of discipline in legislative parties. The model formalizes the tradeoff between resources at the leader's discretion, and the leader's need to maintain a minimum level of support to continue leading. The value of the leader's promises of future benefits is here endogenously determined by the...
  • Convicting the innocent: The inferiority of unanimous jury verdicts under strategic voting

  • Coordination Failure in Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring

    George J. Mailath; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article

    Some private-monitoring games, that is, games with no public histories, can have histories that are almost public. These games are the natural result of perturbing public monitoring games towards private monitoring. We explore the extent to which it is possible to coordinate continuation play in such games. It is always possible to coordinate...

  • Co-ordination, Spillovers, and Cheap Talk

    Sandeep Baliga; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    We analyze the role of cheap-talk in two player games with one-sided incomplete information. We identify conditions under which (1) players can fully communicate and coordinate on efficient Nash equilibria of the underlying complete information game; and (2) players cannot communicate so cheap-talk does not alter the equilibrium set of the...
  • Corruption and Ideology in Autocracies

    James Hollyer; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    Corruption is usually depicted in one of two ways: as stemming from a lack of government accountability, or from a lack of capacity. Neither depiction predicts that the structure of institutions meant to control corruption should vary across autocratic regimes. If corruption results from moral hazard between politicians and citizens, then all...
  • Costly Expertise

    Dino Gerardi; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
  • Credibility and Commitment in Crisis Bargaining

    Mark Fey; Adam Meirowitz; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Although scholars of international security share a skepticism for the extent to which agreements can be externally enforced, much existing game-theoretic work involves strong forms of commitment. Building on the canonical model of crisis bargaining, this article analyzes the role of two forms of commitment in bargaining: the ability to commit to...
  • Delegation with Strings Attached: Underfunding a Biased Agent

    Nemanja Antic; Matias Iaryczower
    Journal Article
  • Deliberately stochastic

    S Cerreia-Vioglio; D Dillenberger; Pietro Ortoleva; G Riella
    Journal Article
  • Deliberating Collective Decisions

    Jimmy Chan; Alessandro Lizzeri; Wing Suen; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article

    We present a dynamic model of sequential information acquisition by a heterogeneous committee. At each date, agents decide whether to vote to adopt one of two alternatives or continue to collect more information. The process stops when a qualified majority vote for an alternative. Three main insights emerge from our analysis and are consistent...

  • Deliberative Voting

    Dino Gerardi; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We analyze a model of jury decision making in which jurors deliberate before casting their votes. We consider a wide range of voting institutions and show that deliberations render these equivalent with respect to the sequential equilibrium outcomes they generate. In particular, in the context of a jury setup, all voting rules excluding the two...
  • The demand for health insurance among uninsured Americans: Results of a survey experiment and implications for policy

    Alan B. Krueger; Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    Most existing work on the demand for health insurance focuses on employees' decisions to enroll in employer-provided plans. Yet any attempt to achieve universal coverage must focus on the uninsured, the vast majority of whom are not offered employer-sponsored insurance. In the summer of 2008, we conducted a survey experiment to assess the...
  • Democracy , Globalization and the Skill-Bias in Trade Policy in Developing Countries

    Helen Milner; B Mukherjee
    Journal Article
    Existing research suggests that democracy fosters economic globalization by promoting trade liberalization in the developing world. We argue that democracy in developing countries generates a “skill bias” in trade protection where democratic incumbents have incentives to increase tariffs on high skilled goods but reduce trade barriers on low...
  • Democracy in America, 2015

    Didi Kuo; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
  • Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism

    Scott Ashworth; Joshua D. Clinton; Adam Meirowitz; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    In "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," Robert Pape (2003) presents an analysis of his suicide terrorism data. He uses the data to draw inferences about how territorial occupation and religious extremism affect the decision of terrorist groups to use suicide tactics. We show that the data are incapable of supporting Pape's conclusions...
  • The determinants of success of special interests in redistributive politics

  • Diffusion of behavior and equilibrium properties in network games

    Matthew O. Jackson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
  • Diffusion on Social Networks

    Matthew O. Jackson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We analyze a model of diffusion on social networks. Agents are connected according to an undirected graph (the network) and choose one of two actions (e.g., either to adopt a new behavior or technology or not to adopt it). The return to each of the actions depends on how many neighbors an agent has, which actions the agent's neighbors choose, and...
  • Distributional preferences in larger groups: Keeping up with the Joneses and keeping track of the tails

    Raymond Fisman; Ilyana Kuziemko; Silvia Vannutelli
    Journal Article
  • Do Americans Want to Tax Capital ? New Evidence from Online Surveys The Political Economy of Wealth Taxation

  • Do electoral handouts affect voting behavior?

    Jenny Guardado; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
  • Do Insurers Risk-Select Against Each Other ? Evidence from Medicaid and Implications for Health Reform

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Katherine Meckel; Maya Rossin-Slater
    Journal Article
    Increasingly in U.S. public insurance programs, the state finances and regulates competing, capitated private health plans but does not itself directly insure beneficiaries through a public fee-for-service (FFS) plan. We develop a simple model of risk-selection in such settings. Capitation incentivizes insurers to retain low-cost clients and thus...
  • Do voters affect or elect policies? Evidence from the U.S. house

    David S. Lee; Enrico Moretti; Matthew J. Butler
    Journal Article
    There are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation. In one view, voters can affect candidates' policy choices: competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center. In this view, elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise. In the alternative view, voters merely...
  • Does Corruption Information Inspire the Fight or Quash the Hope? A Field Experiment in Mexico on Voter Turnout, Choice, and Party Identification

    Alberto Chong; Ana L. De La O; Dean Karlan; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    Retrospective voting models assume that offering more information to voters about their incumbents' performance strengthens electoral accountability. However, it is unclear whether incumbent corruption information translates into higher political participation and increased support for challengers. We provide experimental evidence that such in-...
  • Does gerrymandering cause polarization?

    Nolan McCarty; Keith T. Poole; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
    Both pundits and scholars have blamed increasing levels of partisan conflict and polarization in Congress on the effects of partisan gerrymandering. We assess whether there is a strong causal relationship between congressional districting and polarization. We find very little evidence for such a link. First, we show that congressional polarization...
  • Does high income promote democracy?

    John B. Londregan; Keith T. Poole
    Journal Article
  • Does Managed Care Widen Infant Health Disparities? Evidence from Texas Medicaid

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Katherine Meckel; Maya Rossin-Slater
    Journal Article
    Medicaid programs increasingly finance competing, capitated managed care plans rather than administering fee-for-service (FFS) programs. We study how the transition from FFS to managed care affects high- and low-cost infants (blacks and Hispanics, respectively). We find that black-Hispanic disparities widen—e.g., black mortality and preterm birth...
  • Does the Threat of the Death Penalty Affect Plea Bargaining in Murder Cases? Evidence from New York's 1995 Reinstatement of Capital Punishment

    Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    This article investigates whether the death penalty encourages defendants charged with potentially capital crimes to plead guilty in exchange for lesser sentences. I exploit a natural experiment in New York State: the 1995 reinstatement of capital punishment, coupled with the public refusal of some prosecutors to pursue death sentences (N.Y. Penal...
  • Does the US media have a liberal bias?

    Brendan Nyhan; Nolan McCarty; Justin H. Gross; Cosma Rohilla Shalizi; Andrew Gelman; Nancy L. Rosenblum; Kathleen Hall Jamieson
    Journal Article
    Left turn: how liberal media bias distorts the American mind by Tim Groseclose. New York: St. Martin's Press, 2011. 304p. Reprinted by permission of Cambridge University Press. An electronic version of this article can be accessed via the internet at http://journals.cambridge.org
  • The domestic politics of preferential trade agreements in hard times

  • The dynamics of electoral participation

    Mark N. Franklin
    Journal Article
  • Economic impacts of new unionization on private sector employers: 1984-2001

    John DiNardo; David S. Lee
    Journal Article
    Economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large, representative data on establishments with union status information. Estimates are also confounded by selection bias, because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely to grow and pay higher wages. Using multiple...
  • Economic incentives and political institutions: Spending and voting in school budget referenda

    Thomas Romer; Howard Rosenthal; Vincent G. Munley
    Journal Article
  • The economics of motivated beliefs

    Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
  • The Economics of Motivated Beliefs

    Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
    I present key ideas and results from recent work incorporating " motivated " belief distortions into Economics, both at the individual level (overconfidence, wishful thinking, willful blindness) and at the social one (groupthink, team morale, market exuberance and crises). To do so I develop a flexible model that unifies much of this line of...
  • Education and Human Captial Externalities: Evidence from Colonial Belin

    Leonard Wantchekon; Marko Klasnja; Natalija Novta
    Journal Article
  • The Effect of Indoor Prostitution on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City

    Riccardo Ciacci; Maria Micaela Sviatschi
    Miscellaneous
  • Elections, information aggregation, and strategic voting

    Timothy Feddersen; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Elections, uncertainty and irreversible investment

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Jee Kwang Park
    Journal Article
    This article argues that the policy uncertainty generated by elections encourages private actors to delay investments that entail high costs of reversal, creating pre-election declines in the associated sectors. Moreover, this incentive depends on the competitiveness of the race and the policy differences between the major parties/candidates....
  • Electoral business cycles in OECD countries

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Jee-Kwang Park
    Journal Article
  • Electoral Competition under the Threat of Political Unrest

    Matthew Ellman; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
  • The elusive median voter

    Thomas Romer; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
  • An Empirical Analysis of Imprisoning Drug Offenders

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Steven D. Levitt
    Journal Article
    The number of prisoners incarcerated on drug-related offenses rose 15-fold between 1980 and 2000. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of the implications of that dramatic shift in public policy. We estimate that cocaine prices are 5-15% higher today as a consequence of increases in drug punishment since 1985, presumably...
  • Equilibrium among local jurisdictions: Toward an integrated treatment of voting and residential choice

  • Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities

    David M. Frankel; Stephen Morris; Ady Pauzner
    Journal Article
    We study games with strategic complementarities, arbitrary numbers of players and actions, and slightly noisy payoff signals. We prove limit uniqueness: as the signal noise vanishes, the game has a unique strategy profile that survives iterative dominance. This generalizes a result of Carlsson and van Damme (Econometrica 61 (1993) 989-1018) for...
  • Estimating habit formation in voting

    Thomas Fujiwara; Kyle C. Meng; Tom Vogl
    Miscellaneous
  • Estimating legislators' preferred points

    John Londregan
    Journal Article
  • Estimating Spatial Preferences from Votes and Text

    In Song Kim; John Londregan; Marc Ratkovic
    Journal Article
    We introduce a model that extends the standard vote choice model to encompass text. In our model, votes and speech are generated from a common set of underlying preference parameters. We estimate the parameters with a sparse Gaussian copula factor model that estimates the number of latent dimensions, is robust to outliers, and accounts for zero...
  • Ethnicity and leadership succession in Africa

    John Londregan; Henry Bienen; Nicolas Van de Walle
    Journal Article
  • Evaluating Ambiguous Random Variables and Updating by Proxy

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Evolution of Cooperation and Skew under Imperfect Information

    Erol Akcay; Adam Meirowitz; Kristopher W. Ramsay; Simon A. Levin
    Journal Article
    The evolution of cooperation in nature and human societies depends crucially on how the benefits from cooperation are divided and whether individuals have complete information about their payoffs. We tackle these questions by adopting a methodology from economics called mechanism design. Focusing on reproductive skew as a case study, we show that...
  • Existence of voting and housing equilibrium in a system of communities with property taxes

  • An Experimental Study of Collective Deliberation

    Jacob K. Goeree; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We study the effects of deliberation on collective decisions. In a series of experiments, we vary groups' preference distributions (between common and conflicting interests) and the institutions by which decisions are reached (simple majority, two-thirds majority, and unanimity). Without deliberation, different institutions generate significantly...
  • Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study

    Ben Gillen; Erik Snowberg; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop statistical techniques for handling experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study,...
  • Experiments on decisions under uncertainty:a theoretical framework

    Eran Shmaya; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects...
  • Explaining Parochialism: A Causal Account for Political Polarization in Changing Economic Environments

    Alexander J. Stewart; Nolan McCarty; Joanna J. Bryson
    Miscellaneous
    Political and social polarization are a significant cause of conflict and poor gover-nance in many societies, thus understanding their causes is of considerable importance. Here we demonstrate that shifts in socialization strategy similar to political polarization and/or identity politics could be a constructive response to periods of apparent...
  • Exposure to and recall of violence reduce short-term memory and cognitive control

    Francesco Bogliacino; Gianluca Grimalda; Pietro Ortoleva; Patrick Ring
    Journal Article
    Previous research has investigated the effects of violence and warfare on individuals' well-being, mental health, and individual prosociality and risk aversion. This study establishes the short- and long-term effects of exposure to violence on short-term memory and aspects of cognitive control. Short-term memory is the ability to store information...
  • A field study on matching with network externalities

    Mariagiovanna Baccara; Ayse Imrohoroglu; Alistair J. Wilson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We study the effects of network externalities within a protocol for matching faculty to offices in a new building. Using web and survey data on faculty's attributes and choices, we identify the different layers of the social network: institutional affiliation, coauthorships, and friendships. We quantify the effects of network externalities on...
  • Firms' Preferences over Multidimensional Trade Policies: Global Production Chains, Investment Protection and Dispute Settlement Mechanisms *

    In Song Kim; Helen Milner; Thomas Bernauer; Gabriele Spilker; Iain Osgood; Dustin Tingley
    Journal Article
    In addition to the conventional focus on market access, recent trade agreements have included provisions related to other aspects of trade, such as investment protection, dispute settlement mecha-nisms, and escape clauses that enhance flexibility. We argue that preferences over these increasingly salient dimensions of trade policy will vary by...
  • Forbidden fruits: The political economy of science, religion, and growth

    Roland Bénabou; Davide Ticchi; Andrea Vindigni
    Journal Article
  • Foreign Direct Investment and Institutional Diversity in Trade Agreements

  • A Foundation for Markov Equilibria in Sequential Games with Finite Social Memory

    Stephen Morris; V Bhaskar; George J. Mailath
    Journal Article

    We study stochastic games with an infinite horizon and sequential moves played by an arbitrary number of players. We assume that social memory is finite--every player, except possibly one, is finitely lived and cannot observe events that are sufficiently far back in the past. This class of games includes games between a long-run player and a...

  • Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade

    Edward D. Mansfield; Helen V. Milner; Peter Rosendorff
    Journal Article
  • From Mass Preferences to Policy

    Brandice Canes-Wrone
    Unpublished
    This article reviews recent research on how mass opinion affects policy making in the context of US national institutions. Three themes materialize. First, research provides compelling evidence for “responsiveness,” in which change in mass opinion is associated with subsequent policy changes, but not for a high level of “congruence” between the...
  • From Political Mobilization to Electoral Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s

  • Geography, uncertainty, and polarization

    Nolan McCarty; J Rodden; Boris Shor
    Journal Article
  • Get out the (costly) vote: Institutional design for greater participation

    Leeat Yariv; Dino Gerardi; Margaret McConnell; Julian Romero
    Journal Article
  • Globalization and growth

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
    Conference Paper
    How does globalization affect economic growth? We discuss mechanisms that link international integration to the incentives for knowledge accumulation and the efficacy of that process. First, integration facilitates the flow of knowledge across national borders. Second, integration affords innovators a larger potential market even as it subjects...
  • Globalization and the political benefits of the informal economy

    Helen Milner; Nita Rudra
    Miscellaneous
    INFORMAL SECTOR
  • Government policy with time inconsistent voters

    Alberto Bisin; Alessandro Lizzeri; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    Behavioral economics presents a "paternalistic" rationale for government intervention. Current literature focuses on benevolent government. This paper introduces politicians who may indulge/exploit these behavioral biases. We present an analysis of the novel features that arise when the political process is populated by voters who may be time...
  • Groupthink: Collective delusions in organizations and markets

  • Growth, Trade, and Inequality

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
    Journal Article
    We introduce firm and worker heterogeneity into a model of innovation‐driven endogenous growth. Individuals who differ in ability sort into either a research sector or a manufacturing sector that produces differentiated goods. Each research project generates a new variety of the differentiated product and a random technology for producing it....
  • Habit formation in voting: Evidence from rainy elections

    Thomas Fujiwara; Kyle Meng; Tom Vogl
    Journal Article
    We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploit-ing transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current...
  • History versus expectations: a comment

    Kyoji Fukao; Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
  • Homophily in Peer Groups

    Mariagiovanna Baccara; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    The focus of this paper is the endogenous formation of peer groups. In our model, agents choose peers before making contributions to public projects, and they differ in how much they value one project relative to another. Thus, the group's preference composition affects the type of contributions made. We characterize stable groups and find that...
  • How does risk selection respond to risk adjustment? New evidence from the Medicare Advantage Program

    Jason Brown; Mark Duggan; Ilyana Kuziemko; William Woolston
    Journal Article
    To combat adverse selection, governments increasingly base payments to health plans and providers on enrollees' scores from ­risk-adjustment formulae. In 2004, Medicare began to risk-adjust capitation payments to private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to reduce selection-driven overpayments. But because the variance of medical costs increases with...
  • How elastic are preferences for redistribution? Evidence from randomized survey experiments

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Michael I. Norton; Emmanuel Saez; Stefanie Stantcheva
    Miscellaneous
    This paper analyzes the effects of information about inequality and taxes on preferences for redistribution using randomized online surveys on Amazon Mechanical Turk (mTurk). About 5,000 respondents were randomized into treatments providing interactive information on U.S. income inequality, the link between top income tax rates and economic growth...
  • How much is a seat on the Security Council worth? Foreign aid and bribery at the United Nations

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Eric Werker
    Journal Article
    Ten of the 15 seats on the U.N. Security Council are held by rotating members serving two-year terms. We find that a country's U.S. aid increases by 59 percent and its U.N. aid by 8 percent when it rotates onto the council. This effect increases during years in which key diplomatic events take place (when members' votes should be especially...
  • How Should Inmates Be Released from Prison? An Assessment of Parole versus Fixed-Sentence Regimes

    Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    Over the past 30 years, many states have abolished parole boards, which traditionally have had the discretion to release inmates before the expiration of their full sentence, in favor of fixed-sentence regimes in which the original sentence is binding. However, if prison time lowers recidivism risk and if parole boards can accurately estimate...
  • Human capital, inequality, and growth: A local perspective

  • Human Capital Spillovers in Families: Do Parents Learn from or Lean on Their Children?

    Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    I develop a model in which a child's acquisition of a given form of human capital incentivizes adults in his household to either learn from him (if children act as teachers then adults' cost of learning the skill falls) or lean on him (if children's human capital substitutes for that of adults in household production then adults' benefit of...
  • Human capital, technical change, and the welfare state

  • The Hunt for Party Discipline in Congress

    Nolan McCarty; Keith T. Poole; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
    We analyze party discipline in the House of Representatives between 1947 & 1998. The effects of party pressures can be represented in a spatial model by allowing each party to have its own cutting line on roll call votes. Adding a second cutting line makes, at best, a marginal improvement over the standard single-line model. Analysis of...
  • Identity, morals, and taboos: Beliefs as assets

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • The ideological mapping of American legislatures

    Boris Shor; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    The development and elaboration of the spatial theory of voting has contributed greatly to the study of legislative decision making and elections. Statistical models that estimate the spatial locations of individual decision-makers have made a key contribution to this success. Spatial models have been estimated for the U.S. Congress, the Supreme...
  • Ideologically Sophisticated Donors: Which Candidates Do Individual Contributors Finance?

    Michael J. Barber; Brandice Canes-Wrone; Sharece Thrower
    Journal Article
    Individual contributors far outpace political action committees (PACs) as the largest source of campaign financing, yet recent scholarship has largely focused on PAC giving. Moreover, the literature on individual contributors questions whether they sophisticatedly differentiate among candidates according to their policy positions and spheres of...
  • Ideology, tactics, and efficiency in redistributive politics

    Avinash Dixit; John Londregan
    Journal Article
  • Image Versus Information: Changing Societal Norms and Optimal Privacy

    Nageeb S. Ali; Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
    We analyze the costs and benefits of using social image to foster virtuous behavior. A Principal seeks to motivate reputation-conscious agents to supply a public good. Each agent chooses how much to contribute based on his own mix of public-spiritedness, private signal about the value of the public good, and reputational concern for appearing...
  • In Defense of DW-NOMINATE

    Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    Several of the articles in this volume criticize the use of DW-NOMINATE in historical work in American politics and suggest alternative approaches to the use of roll call voting data. While many of criticisms are certainly valid, their practical implications are often overstated. Moreover, the suggested alternatives are either impractical for most...
  • Incentives and prosocial behavior

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • Individual welfare, majority voting, and the properties of a linear income tax

  • Inducing Deterrence through Moral Hazard in Alliance Contracts

    Brett V. Benson; Adam Meirowitz; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Do military alliances foster aggressive behavior in allies to the point of undermining the security goal of the alliance? Like others, we find that alliance commitments may cause moral hazard because allies do not fully internalize the costs of actions that can lead to war. But unlike others, we show that the effect of moral hazard can improve...
  • Inequality and growth

    Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
  • Inequality, technology and the social contract

    Roland Bénabou
    Book Chapter
  • Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design

    David Card; David S. Lee; Zhuan Pei; Andrea Weber
    Journal Article
    We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. We characterize a broad class of models in which a sharp "Regression Kink Design" (RKD or RK Design) identifies a readily interpretable treatment...
  • Information Acquisition in Committees

    Dino Gerardi; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    The goal of this paper is to illustrate the significance of information acquisition in mechanism design. We provide a stark example of a mechanism design problem in a collective choice environment with information acquisition. We concentrate on committees that are comprised of agents sharing a common goal and having a joint task. Members of the...
  • Information Design, Bayesian Persuasion, and Bayes Correlated Equilibrium

    Dirk Bergemann; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    A set of players have preferences over a set of outcomes. We consider the problem of an "information designer" who can choose an information structure for the players to serve his ends, but has no ability to change the mechanism (or force the players to make particular action choices). We describe a unifying perspective for information design. We...
  • Information, elections, and political change

    Grigore Pop-Eleches
    Journal Article
  • Information, Uncertainty, and War

    Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
  • Interdependent preference models as a theory of intentions

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
    We provide a preference framework for situations in which "intentions matter." A behavioral type describes the individual's observable characteristics and the individual's personality. We define a canonical behavioral type space and provide a condition that identifies collections of behavioral types that are equivalent to components of the...
  • Interjurisdictional sorting and majority rule: an empirical analysis

    Dennis Epple; Thomas Romer; Holger Sieg
    Journal Article
  • International Systems and Domestic Politics: Linking Complex Interactions with Empirical Models in International Relations

    Stephen Chaudoin; Helen V. Milner; Xun Pang
    Journal Article
    Following older debates in international relations literature concerning the relative importance of domestic versus systemic factors, newer debates emphasize interdependence among states and the complex interactions between systemic and domestic factors. As globalization and democratization advance, theories and empirical models of international...
  • International theories of cooperation among nations - strengths and weaknesses

  • International Trade at the Margin : Estimating the Economic Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements

    Gabriele Spilker; Thomas Bernauer; In Song Kim; Helen Milner; Iain Osgood; Dustin Tingley
    Journal Article
  • Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • Is it All Connected? A Testing Ground for Unified Theories of Behavioral Economics Phenomena

    Mark Dean; Pietro Ortoleva
    Unpublished
    We estimate 11 well-studied behavioral phenomena in a group of 190 laboratory subjects (short-term discount rates, small stakes risk aversion, present bias, loss aversion, the endowment effect, aversion to ambiguity and compound lotteries, the common ratio and common consequence effects and sender/receiver behavior in trust games). We study the...
  • Judicial Elections, Public Opinion, and Decisions on Lower Salience Issues

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; TS Clark; A Semet
    Journal Article
  • Judicial independence and retention elections

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Tom S. Clark; Jee-Kwang Park
    Journal Article
  • Judicial Independence in Unstable Environments, Argentina 1935-1998

    Matias Iaryczower; Pablo T. Spiller; Mariano Tommasi
    Journal Article
    NO SE SI ES RELEVANTE Argentina's constitution and electoral rules promote a fragmented polity. It is in those environments that independent judiciaries develop. Instead, most analysts do not consider the Argentina judiciary as independent. In this article we attempt to explain this contradiction by showing that this perception is inappropriate....
  • Judicial lobbying: The politics of labor law constitutional interpretation

    Matias Iaryczower; Pablo Spiller; Mariano Tommasi
    Journal Article
    This paper links the theory of interest groups influence over the$\backslash$nlegislature with that of congressional control over the judiciary. The$\backslash$nresulting framework reconciles the theoretical literature of lobbying$\backslash$nwith the negative available evidence on the impact of lobbying over$\backslash$nlegislative outcomes, and...
  • Judicial selection and death penalty Decisions

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Tom S. Clark; Jason P. Kelly
    Journal Article
    Most U.S. state supreme court justices face elections or reappointment by elected officials, and research suggests that judicial campaigns have come to resemble those for other offices. We develop predictions on how selection systems should affect judicial decisions and test these predictions on an extensive dataset of death penalty decisions by...
  • Labor Unrest, Ideology Formation and Female Participation in the 1930sú

    J Muñoz; T Rodon; F Amat; Carles Boix
    Journal Article
  • ''Last-place Aversion'': Evidence and Redistributive Implications

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Ryan Buell; Taly Reich; Michael Norton
    Journal Article
  • Laws and Authority

    George J. Mailath; Stephen Morris; Andrew Postlewaite
    Journal Article
    A law prohibiting a particular behavior does not directly change the payoff to an individual should he engage in the prohibited behavior. Rather, any change in the individual's payoff, should he engage in the prohibited behavior, is a consequence of changes in other peoples' behavior. If laws do not directly change payoffs, they are "cheap talk,"...
  • Laws and norms

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Miscellaneous
  • Leadership and pandering: A theory of executive policymaking

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Michael C. Herron; Kenneth W. Shotts
    Journal Article
  • A Liberal International American Foreign Policy? Maybe Down but Not Out

  • Long-run impacts of unions on firms: new evidence from financial markets, 1961-1999

    David S. Lee; Alexandre Mas
    Journal Article
    We estimate the effect of new private-sector unionization on publicly traded firms' equity value in the United States over the 1961-1999 period using a newly assembled sample of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) representation elections matched to stock market data. Event-study estimates show an average union effect on the equity value of the...
  • Lost Hegemony?

    Helen Milner; Jack Snyder; Susan Strange
    Journal Article
  • Making a Narco: childhood exposure to illegal labor markets and criminal life paths

  • Matching, Sorting, and the Distributional Effects of International Trade

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; Philipp Kircher
    Journal Article
    We study the distributional consequences of trade in a world with two industries and two heterogeneous factors of production. Productivity in each production unit reflects the ability of the manager and the abilities of the workers, with complementarity between the two. We begin by examining the forces that govern the sorting of worker and manager...
  • Measuring the Chilling Effect

    Michael C. Dorf; Brandice Canes-Wrone
    Unpublished
    Supreme Court doctrine grants special protection against laws that “chill” protected speech, most prominently via the overbreadth doctrine. The overbreadth doctrine permits persons whose own speech is unprotected to challenge laws that infringe the protected speech of third parties. The Court has not generally applied overbreadth and the other...
  • Mechanism Design Goes to War: Peaceful Outcomes with Interdependent and Correlated Types

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    In this paper, we consider the possibility of identifying peaceful mechanisms such as bargaining protocols, international institutions, or norms that can enable countries to settle disputes in the absence of binding contracts. In particular, we are interested in the existence of mechanisms with zero probability of war. Here, we focus on situations...
  • Media and policy

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Miscellaneous
  • Median voters or budget maximizers: Evidence from school expenditure referenda

  • Mindful Economics: The Production, Consumption, and Value of Beliefs

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
    In arising rational-expectations the economic from simple models extrapolation revolution of old, in agents or macroeconomics, error-correction had backward-looking and rules. in microeconomics Then expectations, came the arising from simple extrapolation or error-correction rules. Then came the rational-expectations revolution in macroeconomics,...
  • Mobility and redistribution

    Dennis Epple; Thomas Romer
    Journal Article
  • Mobility as progressivity: ranking income processes according to equality of opportunity

  • A model of the political economy of the United States

    Alberto Alesina; John Londregan; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
  • Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News

    Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
    Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Testing model. According to it, the agent follows Bayes' rule if she receives information to...
  • Models of vetoes and veto bargaining

    Charles Cameron; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    Models of veto bargaining have become an important tool for formal institutional analysis. This chapter reviews the core model of veto bargaining and some of its more interesting and useful extensions, focusing on one of the best developed applications, the presidential veto over legislation. One of the primary attractions of these models is that...
  • The Mommy Effect: Do Women Anticipate the Employment Effects of Motherhood?

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Jessica Pan; Jenny Shen; Ebonya Washington
    Miscellaneous
    After decades of convergence, the gender gap in employment outcomes has recently plateaued in many rich countries, despite the fact that women have increased their investment in human capital over this period. We propose a hypothesis to reconcile these two trends: that when they are making key human capital decisions, women in modern cohorts...
  • Money in Judicial Politics: Individual Contributions and Collective Decisions

  • More than politics: Ability and ideology in the British Appellate Committee

    Matias Iaryczower; Gabriel Katz
    Journal Article
    We argue that a model of judicial behavior that accounts for differences in justices' ability and ideology provides a fruitful alternative for the empirical analysis of judicial decision-making around the world, and illustrate this by focusing on the case of the United Kingdom. We show that the model explains the decisions of the Lords of Appeal...
  • Multidimensional Ellsberg

    Kfir Eliaz; Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
    The classical Ellsberg experiment presents individuals with a choice problem in which the probability of winning a prize is unknown (uncertain). In this paper, we study how individuals make choices between gambles in which the uncertainty is in different dimensions: the winning probability, the amount of the prize, the payment date, and the...
  • Mutual Optimism and War

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Working with the definition of mutual optimism as war due to inconsistent beliefs, we formalize the mutual optimism argument to test the theory's logical validity. We find that in the class of strategic situations where mutual optimism is a necessary condition for war--i.e., where war is known to be inefficient, war only occurs if both sides...
  • Mutual Optimism in the Bargaining Model of War

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
  • Narratives, Imperatives, and Moral Reasoning

    Roland Bénabou; Armin Falk; Jean Tirole
    Unpublished
    By downplaying externalities, magnifying the cost of moral behavior, or suggesting not being pivotal, exculpatory narratives can allow individuals to maintain a positive image when in fact acting in a morally questionable way. Conversely, responsibilizing narratives can help sustain better social norms. We investigate when narratives emerge from a...
  • On the nature of competition in alternative electoral systems

    Matias Iaryczower; Andrea Mattozzi
    Journal Article
    We link the intensity of campaign competition in different electoral systems with the number of candidates running for public office and their ideological differentiation. We show that proportional elections have more candidates, competing less aggressively in campaign spending, than those in majoritarian elections. Candidates' ideological...
  • On the Nature of First Democratic Elections

    Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
  • New games: modeling domestic-international linkages

    Robert Pahre; Paul A. Papayoanou; James D. Morrow; Susanne Lohmann; James D. Fearon; Helen V. Milner; Peter Rosendorff; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita; Randolph M. Siverson
    Journal Article
  • The New Wave of Regionalism

    Edward D. Mansfield; Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
  • No Greater Representation with Taxation : Experimental Evidence from Ghana and Uganda on Citizen Action toward Oil and Taxes

    Brandon de la Cuesta; Helen Milner; Daniel Nielson; Steve Knack
    Book
    Seminal contributions to political economy argue that citizens will more readily engage in political action when they are being taxed, especially compared to when their governments receive nontax revenue from oil. In part this tendency is said to enable the well-known resource curse. We perform two substantively identical experiments with...
  • The non-existence of representative agents

    MO Jackson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
  • Norms in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation in Spain

    Thomas Fujiwara; Carlos Sanz
    Unpublished
    Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two parties tie in the number of seats. The party with slightly...
  • Optimal Communication

    Stephen Morris; Hyun Song Shin
    Journal Article
    Optimal communication to a group often entails a trade-off between precision of information conveyed and common understanding (or approximate common knowledge) of the information within the group. We argue that an understanding of this trade-off is central in many contexts, including central bank communication and the design of accounting...
  • The Optimal Design of International Trade Institutions: Uncertainty and Escape

    Peter Rosendorff; Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
    International institutions that include an escape clause generate more durable & stable cooperative international regimes & are easier to achieve ex ante. The escape clause is endogenous in a model of repeated trade-barrier setting in the presence of symmetric, two-sided, political uncertainty. They permit, along the equilibrium path,...
  • The Optimal Design of International Trade Institutions: Uncertainty and Escape

    Peter Rosendorff; Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
    International institutions that include an escape clause generate more durable and stable cooperative international regimes and are easier to achieve ex ante. The escape clause is endogenous in a model of repeated trade-barrier setting in the presence of symmetric, two-sided, political uncertainty. They permit, along the equilibrium path,...
  • Optimal Dynamic Matching

    Mariagiovanna Baccara; SangMok Lee; Leeat Yariv
    Unpublished
    We study a dynamic matching environment where individuals arrive sequentially. There is a tradeoff between waiting for a thicker market, allowing for higher quality matches, and minimizing agents' waiting costs. The optimal mechanism cumulates a stock of incongruent pairs up to a threshold and matches all others in an assortative fashion...
  • The Origins of State

    Carles Boix
    Journal Article
  • Out of step, out of office: Electoral accountability and House members' voting

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; David W. Brady; John F. Cogan
    Journal Article
  • Outside Options and Burden Sharing in Nonbinding Alliances

    Songying Fang; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    The authors develop a model of alliances with outside options to study burden sharing in nonbinding alliance agreements. The analysis provides an explanation for the variation in ally contributions to NATO over time and why the post-Cold War period has seen an increase in the use of coalitions of the willing. Additionally, the analysis reveals...
  • Over my dead body: Bargaining and the price of dignity

    Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • Overconfidence in political behavior

    Pietro Ortoleva; Erik Snowberg
    Journal Article
    This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and stronger partisan identification. The model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society...
  • The Paradox of "Warlord" Democracy: A Theoretical Investigation

    Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    Political theorists from Machiavelli to Huntington have denied the possibility of popular government arising out of the chaos of civil war, instead prescribing an intermediate stage of one-man rule by a Prince, Leviathan, or a military dictator. Based on recent empirical evidence of post-civil war democratization in El Salvador, Mozambique, and...
  • Partisan labels and democratic accountability: An analysis of State Supreme Court abortion decisions

    Richard P. Caldarone; Brandice Canes-Wrone; Tom S. Clark
    Journal Article
  • Partisan Polarization in the United States: Diagnoses and Avenues for Reform

    Nolan McCarty; Boris Shor
    Unpublished
    Over the several decades, observers of American politics have noted the sharp increase in partisanship and ideological polarization among members of Congress. While better ideological differentiation may provide voters clearer choices and increase accountability, the results of recent partisan and ideological battles have raised questions about...
  • Partisan politics and election failure with ignorant voters

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Pivotal Politics, Partisan Polarization, and Policy Predictability

    Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    The Journal of Politics, Ahead of Print.
  • Polarization, incumbency, and the personal vote

    John Londregan; Thomas Romer
    Journal Article
  • Policy Competition in Real-Time

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Policy Deliberation and Voter Persuasion: Experimental Evidence from an Election in the Philippines

    Leonard Wantchekon; Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma; Thomas Fujiwara
    Journal Article
  • Policy Persistence

    Stephen Coate; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
  • Political Correctness

    Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    An informed advisor wishes to convey her valuable information to an uninformed decision maker with identical preferences. Thus she has a current incentive to truthfully reveal her information. But if the decision maker thinks that the advisor might be biased in favor of one decision and the advisor does not wish to be thought to be biased, the...
  • The Political Economy of International Trade

    Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
    One of the most salient changes in the world economy since 1980 has been the move toward freer trade among countries across the globe. How do existing theories about trade policy explain this puzzle? Three sets of explanations are prominent. First, many focus on changes in trade policy preferences among domestic actors, either societal groups or...
  • the Political Economy of Inward Fdi Flows: an Examination of Opposition To Chinese Mergers & Acquisitions in the United States

  • Political income redistribution

    John Londregan
    Book Chapter
  • Political order and inequality

  • Political power and the credibility of government debt

    Avinash Dixit; John Londregan
    Journal Article
  • Political Resource Allocation: Benefits and Costs of Voter Initiatives

    John G. Matsusaka; Nolan M. McCarty
    Journal Article
    This article explores the benefits and costs of the voter initiative, a direct democracy device that allows policy decisions to be made by voters rather than their elected representatives. Previous research suggests that by introducing "competition" into the proposal process, the initiative leads to policies that are closer to the median voter's...
  • Politics at the Water's Edge: Crisis Bargaining and Electoral Competition

    Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    The role of domestic politics is investigated, using a model to show how domestic opposition during a crisis can reveal to a rival state private information about the incumbent. In particular, the public nature of democratic competition results in the institutionally induced credibility of the message.
  • Politics, Institutions, and Trade

    In-Song Kim; John Londregan; Marc Ratkovic
    Journal Article
  • The politics of blame: bargaining before an audience

    Tim Groseclose; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
  • The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?

    Tim Buthe; Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
    The flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time. The political factors that affect these flows are not well understood. Focusing on the relationship between trade and investment, we argue that international trade agreements-GATT/WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs)-provide...
  • The politics of foreign direct investment into developing countries: increasing FDI through international trade agreements?

    Tim Buthe; Helen V. Milner
    Journal Article
    The flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time. The political factors that affect these flows are not well understood. Focusing on the relationship between trade and investment, we argue that international trade agreements - GATT/WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs) - provide...
  • Poverty, the coup trap, and the seizure of executive power

    John B. Londregan; Keith T. Poole
    Journal Article
  • Power brokers: Middlemen in legislative bargaining

    Matias Iaryczower; Santiago Oliveros
    Journal Article
    We study a model of decentralized legislative bargaining over public decisions with transfers. We establish the emergence of middlemen in legislative bargaining as a robust equilibrium phenomenon. We show that legislative intermediation can impact policy outcomes, and can be inefficient. To fulfill this role, the middleman's policy preferences and...
  • Pre-Communist and Communist Developmental Legacies

    Grigore Pop-Eleches
    Journal Article
    This article discusses two distinctive approaches for thinking about historical legacies in the post-communist context. The first approach, which builds on the work of Ken Jowitt, emphasizes the distinctiveness of Leninist socioeconomic and political legacies, while the second approach, rooted in the writings of Andrew Janos, highlights the...
  • Present bias and collective dynamic choice in the lab

    Matthew O. Jackson; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We study collective decisions by time-discounting individuals choosing a common consumption stream. We show that with any heterogeneity in time preferences, utilitarian aggregation necessitates a present bias. In lab experiments three quarters of 'social planners' exhibited present biases, and less than two percent were time consistent. Roughly a...
  • Presidential approval and legislative success

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; Scott De Marchi
    Journal Article
  • Presidential Reputation and the Veto

    Nolan M. McCarty
    Journal Article
  • Presidential Vetoes in the Early Republic: Changing Constitutional Norms or Electoral Reform?

    Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    Historians, political scientists, and legal scholars have long debated the origins and development of the executive veto in the early United States. Some scholars argue that the power was originally conceived as quite limited. These scholars argue that until Andrew Jackson used the veto against the recharter of the Bank of the United States, the...
  • The president's legislative influence from public appeals

    Brandice Canes-Wrone
    Journal Article
  • The Price of Flexibility: Towards a Theory of Thinking Aversion

    Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
    We study the behavior of an agent who dislikes large choice sets because of the 'cost of thinking' involved in choosing from them. Focusing on preferences over lotteries of menus, we introduce the notion of thinking aversion. We characterize preferences as the difference between an affine evaluation of the content of the menu and a function that...
  • A Primary Cause of Partisanship? Nomination Systems and Legislator Ideology

    Eric McGhee; Seth Masket; Boris Shor; Steven Rogers; Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    Many theoretical and empirical accounts of representation argue that primary elections are a polarizing influence. Likewise, many reformers advocate opening party nominations to non-members as a way of increasing the number of moderate elected officials. Data and measurement constraints, however, have limited the range of empirical tests of this...
  • The pro-competitive effect of campaign limits in non-majoritarian elections

    Matias Iaryczower; Andrea Mattozzi
    Journal Article
    We study a model of elections in non-majoritarian systems that captures the link between competition in policies and competition in campaign spending. We argue that the overall competitiveness of the political arena depends both on the endogenous number of parties contesting the election and the endogenous level of campaign spending. These two...
  • Product Development and International Trade

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
    Journal Article
    We develop a multicountry, dynamic general equilibrium model of product innovation and international trade to study the creation of comparative advantage through research and development and the evolution of world trade over time. In our model, firms must incur resource costs to introduce new products, and forward-looking potential producers...
  • The productivity slowdown and the declining labor share: a neoclassical exploration

    Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; Ezra Obersfield; Thomas Sampson; E Oberfield; Thomas Sampson
    Journal Article
    We explore the possibility that a global productivity slowdown is responsible for the widespread decline in the labor share of national income. In a neoclassical growth model with endogenous human capital accumulation a la Ben Porath (1967) and capital-skill complementarity a la Grossman et al. (2017), the steady-state labor share is positively...
  • Proposal rights, veto rights, and political bargaining

  • Public Opposition to Foreign Acquisitions of Domestic Companies: Evidence from the United States and China

    Adams S. Chilton; Helen Milner; Dustin H. Tingley
    Journal Article
    The objective of this case study was to obtain some first-hand information about the functional consequences of a cosmetic tongue split operation for speech and tongue motility. One male patient who had performed the operation on himself was interviewed and underwent a tongue motility assessment, as well as an ultrasound examination. Tongue...
  • The purpose of trade agreements

    Gene Grossman
    Journal Article
  • Random evolving lotteries and intrinsic preference for information

    Faruk Gul; P Natenzon; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Random expected utility

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections

    David S. Lee
    Journal Article
    This paper establishes the relatively weak conditions under which causal inferences from a regression-discontinuity (RD) analysis can be as credible as those from a randomized experiment, and hence under which the validity of the RD design can be tested by examining whether or not there is a discontinuity in any pre-determined (or "baseline")...
  • The rational design of international institutions

    Barbara Koremenos; Charles Lipson; Duncan Snidal; Andrew Kydd; Peter Rosendorff; Helen V. Milner; Robert Pahre; Ronald B. Mitchell; Patricia M. Keilbach; Walter Mattli; Thomas H. Oatley; James D. Morrow; John E. Richards; Alexander Wendt
    Journal Article
  • Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics

  • Reciprocity and Public Opposition to Foreign Direct Investment

    Adam S. Chilton; Helen Milner; Dustin Tingley
    Miscellaneous
    Prior International Political Economy (IPE) public opinion research has primarily examined how economic and socio-cultural factors shape individuals' views on the flows of goods, people, and capital. What has largely been ignored is whether individuals also care about rewarding or punishing foreign countries for their policies on these subjects....
  • Redistributive politics and economic efficiency

    Avinash Dixit; John Londregan
    Journal Article
  • Reference points and redistributive preferences: experimental evidence

    Jimmy Charité; Raymond Fisman; Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    If individuals evaluate outcomes relative to the status quo, then a social planner may limit redistribution from rich to poor even in the absence of moral hazard. We present two experiments suggesting that individuals, placed in the position of a social planner, do in fact respect the reference points of others. First, subjects are given the...
  • Regional trade governance

    SY Kim; ED Mansfield; Helen Milner
    Book
  • Regression discontinuity designs in economics

    David S. Lee; Thomas Lemieux
    Journal Article

    This paper provides an introduction and "user guide" to Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for empirical researchers. It presents the basic theory behind the research design, details when RD is likely to be valid or invalid given economic incentives, explains why it is considered a "quasi-experimental" design, and summarizes different ways (...

  • Regression discontinuity inference with specification error

    David S. Lee; David Card
    Journal Article
    A regression discontinuity (RD) research design is appropriate for program evaluation problems in which treatment status (or the probability of treatment) depends on whether an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. In many applications the treatment-determining covariate is discrete. This makes it impossible to compare outcomes for...
  • A regression discontinuity test of strategic voting and Duverger's Law

  • The Regulation and Self-Regulation of a Complex Industry

    Nolan McCarty
    Journal Article
    I develop model of policy making in complex domains where bureaucrats find it very difficult to establish autonomous sources of expertise so that regulators are highly dependent on the regulated industry. Such policy environments create trade-offs between expertise and autonomy. In the model, a legislative principal decides whether to delegate...
  • Religion and innovation

    Roland Bénabou; Davide Ticchi; Andrea Vindigni
    Journal Article
  • Religion and Innovation

    Roland Bénabou; D Ticchi; A Vindigni
    Journal Article
  • Replication, Realism, and Robustness: Analyzing Political Regimes and International Trade

    Edward D. Mansfield; Helen V. Milner; Peter Rosendorff
    Journal Article
    Our earlier article established that pairs of democracies trade more freely than country-pairs composed of a democracy & an autocracy (Mansfield, Milner, & Rosendorff 2000). Xinyuan Dai (2002) incorrectly asserts that our conclusion depends on the preferences of the decision makers who formulate trade policy. We show that Dai fails to...
  • Resisting the Protectionist Temptation: Industry and the Making of Trade Policy in France and the United States during the 1970s

  • Resource wealth and political regimes in Africa

    Nathan Jensen; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    Political economists point to the levels of economic development, poverty, and income inequality as the most important determinants of political regimes. The authors present empirical evidence suggesting a robust and negative correlation between the presence of a sizable natural resource sector and the level of democracy in Africa. They argue that...
  • Revealed (P)reference theory

    Efe A. Ok; Pietro Ortoleva; Gil Riella
    Journal Article
    This paper develops axiomatically a revealed preference theory of reference-dependent choice behavior. Instead of taking the refer-ence for an agent as exogenously given in the description of a choice problem, we suitably relax the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference to obtain, endogenously, the existence of reference alternatives as well as the...
  • Revisiting the Resource Curse: Natural Disasters, the Price of Oil, and Democracy

    Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Fluctuations in the price of oil and the contemporaneous political changes in oil-producing countries have raised an important question about the link between oil rents, political institutions, and civil liberties. This article presents a simple model of the relationship between resource income and political freedom and, using an instrumental...
  • Robust Implementation in Direct Mechanisms

    Dirk Bergemann; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    A social choice function is robustly implementable if there is a mechanism under which the process of iteratively eliminating strictly dominated messages lead to outcomes that agree with the social choice function for all beliefs at every type profile. In an interdependent-value environment with single-crossing preferences, we identify a...
  • Robust Mechanism Design

    Dirk Bergemann; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    The mechanism design literature assumes too much common knowledge of the environment among the players and planner. We relax this assumption by studying mechanism design on richer type spaces. We ask when ex post implementation is equivalent to interim (or Bayesian) implementation for all possible type spaces. The equivalence holds in the case of...
  • Robust Virtual Implementation

    Dirk Bergemann; Stephen Morris
    Journal Article
    In a general interdependent preference environment, we characterize when two payoff types can be distinguished by their rationalizable strategic choices without any prior knowledge of their beliefs and higher order beliefs. We show that two payoff types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they satisfy a separability condition. The...
  • The Roots of the Industrial Revolution: Political Institutions or (Socially Embedded) Know-How?

    Scott Abramson; Carles Boix
    Unpublished
    In this paper we reassess the literature of growth by looking at the evolution of the European economy from around 1200 to 1900. Employing a comprehensive dataset for the European continent that includes geographic and climate features (1200-1800), urbanization data (1200-1800), per capita income data in the second half of the 19th century,...
  • The Runner-Up Effect

    Santosh Anagol; Thomas Fujiwara
    Journal Article
    Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the...
  • Sailing at the Water's Edge: The Domestic Politics of American Foreign Policy

  • Science and the system: IPE and international monetary politics

    Stephen Chaudoin; Helen Milner
    Journal Article
  • The seizure of executive power and economic growth: some additional evidence

  • Self-control and the theory of consumption

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Self-control in peer groups

    Marco Battaglini; Roland Bénabou; Jean Tirole
    Journal Article
  • Settling it on the Field: Battlefield Events and War Termination

    Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    Using a sample of battlefield data from twentieth-century wars, the author of this article tests a number of previously untested hypotheses linking battle events and the decision to end violent conflict. The author explores how factors like the distribution of power, battlefield casualties, and information that flows from the battlefield influence...
  • The slave trade and the origins of mistrust in Africa

    Nathan Nunn; Leonard Wantchekon
    Journal Article
    We show that current differences in trust levels within Africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and Indian Ocean slave trades. Combining contemporary individual-level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group, we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting...
  • Social mobility and the demand for redistribution: the POUM hypothesis

  • Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-transparency, Not Con: Reply

  • Sovereign debt: Forgiving and forgetting reconsidered

  • Statistical Discrimination and Affirmative Action in the Lab

    Ahrash Dianat; Federico Echenique; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
  • Stochastic Choice and Preferences for Randomization

    Marina Agranov; Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
  • Strategic redistricting

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Structural Conditions and Democratization

    Grigore Pop-Eleches; Graeme B. Robertson
    Journal Article
    The truth is that hybrid regimes are a diverse lot, differing not just in the nature of their political systems but also along a whole host of other dimensions that matter for a country's prospects for democratization. [...]whether a particular country becomes more democratic or more authoritarian in the future depends not just on the nature of...
  • Support for Redistribution in an Age of Rising Inequality: New Stylized Facts and Some Tentative Explanations

    Vivekinan Ashok; Ilyana Kuziemko; Ebonya Washington
    Journal Article
    Despite the large increases in economic inequality since 1970, American survey respondents exhibit no increase in support for redistribution, contrary to the predictions from standard theories of redistributive preferences. We replicate these results but further demonstrate substantial heterogeneity by demographic group. In particular, the two...
  • Support for Redistribution in an Age of Rising Inequality: New Stylized Facts and Some Tentative Explanations

    Vivekinan Ashok; Ilyana Kuziemko; Ebonya Washington
    Journal Article
    Despite the large increases in economic inequality since 1970, American survey respondents exhibit no increase in support for redistribution, in contrast to the predictions from standard theories of redistributive preferences. We replicate these results but further demonstrate substantial heterogeneity by demographic groups. In particular, the two...
  • The swing voter's curse

    Timothy J. Feddersen; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Tax and Education Policy in a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy: What Levels of Redistribution Maximize Growth and Efficiency?

  • Temptation and self-control

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Theory Ahead of Measurement

    Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
    This is a timely and ambitious paper on an important topic. The phenomenon of social sorting and its role in human capital transmission is one that every parent and homeowner has direct experience with. On the other hand, the economic research tying it to {$\backslash$textquotedblleft}larger{$\backslash$textquotedblright} issues of national...
  • A Theory of Post-Civil War Democratization

    Leonard Wantchekon; Zvika Neeman
    Journal Article
    We model the transition from a chaotic status quo to a more orderly political regime as a two-stage game involving two warring factions & the citizens. The warring factions move first & decide the form of government by (1) inviting an external arbitrator, (2) choosing the people as arbitrator, ie, democratizing, or (3) maintaining the...
  • A theory of presidents' public agenda setting

    Brandice Canes-Wrone
    Journal Article
  • Theory of product differentiation in the presence of the attraction effect

    EA Ok; Pietro Ortoleva; G Riella
    Journal Article
  • Time lotteries

    P DeJarnette; D Dillenberger; D Gottlieb; Pietro Ortoleva
    Journal Article
  • To elect or to appoint? Bias, information, and responsiveness of bureaucrats and politicians

    Matias Iaryczower; Garrett Lewis; Matthew Shum
    Journal Article
    In this paper, we address empirically the trade-offs involved in choosing between bureaucrats and politicians. In order to do this, we map institutions of selection and retention of public officials to the type of public officials they induce. We do this by specifying a collective decision-making model, and exploiting its equilibrium information...
  • Too young to marry? Early marriage and labor demand

    Maria Micaela Sviatschi
    Miscellaneous
  • Toward a broader understanding of presidential power: A reevaluation of the two presidencies thesis

    Brandice Canes-Wrone; William G. Howell; David E. Lewis
    Journal Article
  • Trade negotiations, information and domestic politics: the role of domestic groups

  • Trading Places: Industries for Free Trade

    Helen Milner
    Journal Article
  • The Transparency Curse : Private Information and Political Freedom . by

  • The Troubled Quest for Equality in School Finance

    Sean P. Corcoran; Thomas Romer; Howard L. Rosenthal
    Book Chapter
  • Trust, coordination, and the industrial organization of political activism

    Marco Battaglini; Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
  • The twilight of the setter? Public school budgets in a time of institutional change

    Sean Corcoran; Thomas Romer; Howard Rosenthal
    Journal Article
    We use a policy change that occurred in Oregon in the late 1980s to re-visit the budget-maximizing agenda setter theory of local public expenditure. Prior to 1987, Oregon school districts held operating levy elections with an exogenous, often zero or very low, spending reversion. From 1987 through 1990, districts experienced a “safety net” regime...
  • Uncertainty and incentives in crisis bargaining: game-free analysis of international conflict

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    We study two different varieties of uncertainty that countries can face in international crises and establish general results about the relationship between these sources of uncertainty and the possibility of peaceful resolution of conflict. Among our results, we show that under some weak conditions, there is no equilibrium of any crisis...
  • Understanding poverty

    Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee; Roland Bénabou; Dilip Mookherjee
    Book
  • Unequal Incomes, Ideology and Gridlock: How Rising Inequality Increases Political Polarization

    John Voorheis; Nolan McCarty; Boris Shor
    Unpublished
    Income inequality and political polarization have both increased dramatically in the United States over the last several decades. A small but growing literature has suggested that these two phenomena may be related and mutually reinforcing: income inequality leads to political polarization, and the gridlock induced by polarization reduces the...
  • Unequal societies: Income distribution and the social contract

  • Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data

    HS Farber; D Herbst; Ilyana Kuziemko; S Naidu
    Journal Article
  • Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks

    Stephen Morris; Hyun Song Shin
    Journal Article
    Even though self-fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge, the authors demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals. This unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals but also on financial variables,...
  • The value of information in the court: Get it right, keep it tight

    Matias Iaryczower; Matthew Shum
    Miscellaneous
    We estimate an equilibrium model of decision-making in the US Supreme Court which takes into account both private information and ideological differences between justices. We present a measure of the value of information in the court. Our measure is the probability that a justice votes differently that what she would have voted for in the absence...
  • Veto power and legislation: an empirical analysis of executive and legislative bargaining from 1961 to 1986

  • Vetoing Cooperation: The Impact of Veto Players on International Trade Agreements

    Edward D. Mansfield; Helen Milner; Jon C. Pevehouse
    Book Chapter
    Edward D. Mansfield Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science Department$\backslash$nof Political Science University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA$\backslash$n19104 215-898-7657 (phone) 215-573-2073 (fax) emansfie@sas.upenn.edu$\backslash$nHelen V. Milner BC Forbes Professor of Politics and
  • Vetoing co-operation: the impact of veto players on preferential trading arrangements

    Edward D. Mansfield; Helen V. Milner; Jon C. Pevehouse
    Journal Article
    Since the Second World War, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) have become increasingly pervasive features of the international economic system. A great deal of research has addressed the economic consequences of these arrangements, but far less effort has been made to identify the political factors leading states to enter them. In this...
  • Voting behavior and information aggregation in elections with private information

    Timothy Feddersen; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • Voting in the Bicameral Congress: Large Majorities as a Signal of Quality.

    Matias Iaryczower; Gabriel Katz; Sebastian Saiegh
    Journal Article
  • Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence From Brazil

    Thomas Fujiwara
    Journal Article
    This paper studies the introduction of electronic voting technology in Brazilian elec- tions. Estimates exploiting a regression discontinuity design indicate that electronic voting reduced residual (error-ridden and uncounted) votes and promoted a large de facto enfranchisement of mainly less educated citizens. Estimates exploiting the unique...
  • The war of information

    Faruk Gul; Wolfgang Pesendorfer
    Journal Article
  • The welfare costs of moderate inflations

    Roland Bénabou
    Journal Article
  • What does It Take for Congress to Enact Good Policies? An Analysis of Roll Call Voting in the US Congress

  • What makes voters turn out: The effects of polls and beliefs

    Marina Agranov; Jacob K. Goeree; Julian Romero; Leeat Yariv
    Journal Article
    We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. The data reveal...
  • When Is Shuttle Diplomacy Worth the Commute? Information Sharing through Mediation

    Mark Fey; Kristopher W. Ramsay
    Journal Article
    The authors study the conflict mediation problem, sometimes called "shuttle diplomacy," when the mediator acts as a go-between & must gather information from the disputants. In the context of a general model of information mediation, they show that the incentive that disputants have to lie to the mediator undoes any advantage that might be...
  • Who Controls Foreign Aid? Elite versus Public Perceptions of Donor Influence in Aid-Dependent Uganda

    Michael G. Findley; Adam S. Harris; Helen V. Milner; Daniel L. Nielson
    Journal Article
    Does foreign aid enable or constrain elite capture of public revenues? Reflecting on prominent debates in the foreign aid literature, we examine whether recipient preferences are consistent with a view that foreign donors wield substantial control over the flow of aid dollars, making elite capture more difficult and mass benefits more likely. We...
  • Who leads whom?: presidents, policy, and the public

  • Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy

    Helen V. Milner; Dustin H. Tingley
    Journal Article
    In this article we bring together opposing international relations theories to better understand U.S. foreign policy, in particular foreign trade and aid. Using votes in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1979-2004, we explore different theoretical predictions about preferences for foreign economic policy. We assess the impact of domestic...
  • Why did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate

    Ilyana Kuziemko; Ebonya Washington
    Journal Article
    After generations of loyalty, Southern whites left the Democratic party en masse in the second half of the twentieth century. To what extent did Democrats' 1960s Civil Rights initiatives trigger this exodus, versus Southern economic development, rising political polarization or other trends that made the party unattractive to Southern whites? The...
  • Why do mothers breastfeed girls less than boys? Evidence and implications for child health in India

    Seema Jayachandran; Ilyana Kuziemko
    Journal Article
    Breastfeeding is negatively correlated with future fertility because nursing temporarily reduces fecundity and because mothers usually wean on becoming pregnant again. We model breastfeeding under son-biased fertility preferences and show that breastfeeding duration increases with birth order, especially near target family size; is lowest for...
  • Why has US policy uncertainty risen since 1960?

    Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Brandice Canes-Wrone; Steven J. Davis; Jonathan Rodden
    Conference Paper
    We consider two classes of explanations for the rise in policy-related economic uncer- tainty in the United States since 1960. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes, and regulation. A second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for the policy-making process and policy choices.
  • Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries

    Helen V. Milner; Keiko Kubota
    Journal Article
    Rising international trade flows are a primary component of globalization. The liberalization of trade policy in many developing countries has helped foster the growth of these flows. Preceding and concurrent with this move to free trade, there has been a global movement toward democracy. We argue that these two trends are related: democratization...
  • Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think

    Jonathan Chapman; Mark Dean; Pietro Ortoleva; Erik Snowberg; Colin Camerer
    Journal Article
    An enormous literature documents that willingness to pay (WTP) is less than willingness to accept (WTA) a monetary amount for an object, a phenomenon called the endowment effect. Using data from an incentivized survey of a representative sample of 3,000 U.S. adults, we add one (probably) surprising additional finding: WTA and WTP for a lottery are...