Credibility and Commitment in Crisis Bargaining

TitleCredibility and Commitment in Crisis Bargaining
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsFey M, Meirowitz A, Ramsay KW
JournalPolitical Science Research and Methods
Pagination - 52
Date PublishedJune 2013
ISBN Number2049-8470, 2049-8470
Keywords9043: methodology and research technology; research methods and models, article, Credibility, Expectations, Honor, Intellectuals, International Security, Negotiation, Probability, War
AbstractAlthough scholars of international security share a skepticism for the extent to which agreements can be externally enforced, much existing game-theoretic work involves strong forms of commitment. Building on the canonical model of crisis bargaining, this article analyzes the role of two forms of commitment in bargaining: the ability to commit to a settlement and the ability to commit to end negotiations and initiate war fighting. The findings show that, contrary to expectations, allowing a proposer to retract their offer after learning of its acceptance does not lead to greater demands. Instead, a rational actor can be best off if he or she honors the accepted agreement in crisis bargaining, even though the act of accepting an offer changes the proposer's beliefs about the probability that an offer is acceptable. However, allowing a proposer to continue bargaining in lieu of fighting does change the dynamics of bargaining, although this effect diminishes as players become more patient. Finally, when there is no commitment to offers (or fighting after a rejected proposal), the behavior is the same as that found in the model with only renegotiation of agreements, and thus mirrors the behavior in the model in which both forms of commitment are present. Adapted from the source document.