Do voters affect or elect policies? Evidence from the U.S. house

TitleDo voters affect or elect policies? Evidence from the U.S. house
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2004
AuthorsLee DS, Moretti E, Butler MJ
JournalQuarterly journal of economics
Pagination - 860
Date PublishedAug 2004
ISBN Number0033-5533, 0033-5533
KeywordsCompetition, Convergence, Economic analysis, Elections, Policy making, Political Science, Politicians, U.S.A., Voters, Voting behaviour
AbstractThere are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation. In one view, voters can affect candidates' policy choices: competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center. In this view, elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise. In the alternative view, voters merely elect policies: politicians cannot make credible promises to moderate their policies, and elections are merely a means to decide which one of two opposing policy views will be implemented. We assess which of these contrasting perspectives is more empirically relevant for the U.S. House. Focusing on elections decided by a narrow margin allows us to generate quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of a 'randomized' change in electoral strength on subsequent representatives' roll-call voting records. We find that voters merely elect policies: the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator's voting behavior. For example, a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the Democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties' nominees to the left. Politicians' inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition-induced convergence in policy. Reprinted by permission of the MIT Press