Overconfidence in political behavior

TitleOverconfidence in political behavior
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2015
AuthorsOrtoleva P, Snowberg E
JournalAmerican Economic Review
Volume105
Pagination504–535
Date Publishedfeb
ISSN00028282
ISBN Number9788578110796
AbstractThis paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and stronger partisan identification. The model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our numerous predictions find strong support in these data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness, voter turnout, and partisan identification. (JEL XXX)
URLhttp://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20130921
DOI10.1257/aer.20130921
PubMed ID25246403