Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks

TitleUnique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication1998
AuthorsMorris S, Shin HSong
JournalAmerican Economic Review
Pagination - 597
Date PublishedJune 1998
ISBN Number0002-8282, 0002-8282
KeywordsCommon Knowledge, Equilibria, Equilibrium, Expectations, Speculations (D84), Foreign Exchange (F31), Speculator
AbstractEven though self-fulfilling currency attacks lead to multiple equilibria when fundamentals are common knowledge, the authors demonstrate the uniqueness of equilibrium when speculators face a small amount of noise in their signals about the fundamentals. This unique equilibrium depends not only on the fundamentals but also on financial variables, such as the quantity of hot money in circulation and the costs of speculative trading. In contrast to multiple equilibrium models, the authors' model allows analysis of policy proposals directed at curtailing currency attacks.