Publications

Publications List

330 Publications
Journal Article
A law prohibiting a particular behavior does not directly change the payoff to an individual should he engage in the prohibited behavior. Rather, any change in the individual's payoff, should he engage in the prohibited behavior, is a consequence of changes in other peoples' behavior. If laws do not directly change payoffs, they are "cheap talk,"…
Miscellaneous
Prior International Political Economy (IPE) public opinion research has primarily examined how economic and socio-cultural factors shape individuals' views on the flows of goods, people, and capital. What has largely been ignored is whether individuals also care about rewarding or punishing foreign countries for their policies on these subjects…
Unpublished
Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two parties tie in the number of seats. The party with slightly…
Journal Article
In addition to the conventional focus on market access, recent trade agreements have included provisions related to other aspects of trade, such as investment protection, dispute settlement mecha-nisms, and escape clauses that enhance flexibility. We argue that preferences over these increasingly salient dimensions of trade policy will vary by…
Journal Article
Understanding how changes to war-fighting technology influence the probability of war is central to security studies. Yet the effects of changes in the distribution of power are not obvious. All else equal, increasing a country's power makes it more aggressive when making demands or more resistant to accepting offers, but all else is not equal…
Journal Article
We analyze the costs and benefits of using social image to foster virtuous behavior. A Principal seeks to motivate reputation-conscious agents to supply a public good. Each agent chooses how much to contribute based on his own mix of public-spiritedness, private signal about the value of the public good, and reputational concern for appearing…
Journal Article
Several of the articles in this volume criticize the use of DW-NOMINATE in historical work in American politics and suggest alternative approaches to the use of roll call voting data. While many of criticisms are certainly valid, their practical implications are often overstated. Moreover, the suggested alternatives are either impractical for most…
Journal Article
We argue that a model of judicial behavior that accounts for differences in justices' ability and ideology provides a fruitful alternative for the empirical analysis of judicial decision-making around the world, and illustrate this by focusing on the case of the United Kingdom. We show that the model explains the decisions of the Lords of Appeal…
Journal Article
We study a model of decentralized legislative bargaining over public decisions with transfers. We establish the emergence of middlemen in legislative bargaining as a robust equilibrium phenomenon. We show that legislative intermediation can impact policy outcomes, and can be inefficient. To fulfill this role, the middleman's policy preferences and…
Journal Article
In arising rational-expectations the economic from simple models extrapolation revolution of old, in agents or macroeconomics, error-correction had backward-looking and rules. in microeconomics Then expectations, came the arising from simple extrapolation or error-correction rules. Then came the rational-expectations revolution in macroeconomics,…
Journal Article
The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects'…
Journal Article
Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the…
Journal Article
We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploit-ing transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on U.S. presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current…
Unpublished
Over the several decades, observers of American politics have noted the sharp increase in partisanship and ideological polarization among members of Congress. While better ideological differentiation may provide voters clearer choices and increase accountability, the results of recent partisan and ideological battles have raised questions about…
Journal Article
We study coordination games under general type spaces. We characterize rationalizable actions in terms of the properties of the belief hierarchies and show that there is a unique rationalizable action played whenever there is approximate common certainty of rank beliefs, defined as the probability the players assign to their payoff parameters…
Journal Article
We provide a preference framework for situations in which "intentions matter." A behavioral type describes the individual's observable characteristics and the individual's personality. We define a canonical behavioral type space and provide a condition that identifies collections of behavioral types that are equivalent to components of the…
Journal Article
A set of players have preferences over a set of outcomes. We consider the problem of an "information designer" who can choose an information structure for the players to serve his ends, but has no ability to change the mechanism (or force the players to make particular action choices). We describe a unifying perspective for information design. We…
Journal Article
Different theories about the impact of aid make distinct predictions about citizens' attitudes toward foreign aid in recipient countries. We investigate their preferences toward aid and government projects in order to examine these different theories. Are citizens indifferent between development projects funded by their own government versus those…
Journal Article
This paper studies the formation of peer groups entailing the joint production of public goods. In our model agents choose their peers and have to pay a connection cost for each member added to the group. After groups are formed, each agent selects a public project to make a costly contribution to, and all members of the group experience the…
Journal Article
The objective of this case study was to obtain some first-hand information about the functional consequences of a cosmetic tongue split operation for speech and tongue motility. One male patient who had performed the operation on himself was interviewed and underwent a tongue motility assessment, as well as an ultrasound examination. Tongue…
Journal Article
The classical Ellsberg experiment presents individuals with a choice problem in which the probability of winning a prize is unknown (uncertain). In this paper, we study how individuals make choices between gambles in which the uncertainty is in different dimensions: the winning probability, the amount of the prize, the payment date, and the…
Journal Article
Corruption is usually depicted in one of two ways: as stemming from a lack of government accountability, or from a lack of capacity. Neither depiction predicts that the structure of institutions meant to control corruption should vary across autocratic regimes. If corruption results from moral hazard between politicians and citizens, then all…
Journal Article
This article discusses two distinctive approaches for thinking about historical legacies in the post-communist context. The first approach, which builds on the work of Ken Jowitt, emphasizes the distinctiveness of Leninist socioeconomic and political legacies, while the second approach, rooted in the writings of Andrew Janos, highlights the…
Journal Article
Despite the large increases in economic inequality since 1970, American survey respondents exhibit no increase in support for redistribution, in contrast to the predictions from standard theories of redistributive preferences. We replicate these results but further demonstrate substantial heterogeneity by demographic groups. In particular, the two…
Unpublished
Supreme Court doctrine grants special protection against laws that “chill” protected speech, most prominently via the overbreadth doctrine. The overbreadth doctrine permits persons whose own speech is unprotected to challenge laws that infringe the protected speech of third parties. The Court has not generally applied overbreadth and the other…
Miscellaneous
This paper analyzes the effects of information about inequality and taxes on preferences for redistribution using randomized online surveys on Amazon Mechanical Turk (mTurk). About 5,000 respondents were randomized into treatments providing interactive information on U.S. income inequality, the link between top income tax rates and economic growth…
Journal Article
The truth is that hybrid regimes are a diverse lot, differing not just in the nature of their political systems but also along a whole host of other dimensions that matter for a country's prospects for democratization. [...]whether a particular country becomes more democratic or more authoritarian in the future depends not just on the nature of…
Journal Article
We use a revealed preference approach to disentangle conformity, an intrinsic taste to follow others, from information-driven herding. We provide ob- servations from a series of sequential decision-making experiments in which sub- jects choose the type of information they observe before making their decision. Namely, subjects choose between…