Publications

Publications List

330 Publications
Miscellaneous
Prior International Political Economy (IPE) public opinion research has primarily examined how economic and socio-cultural factors shape individuals' views on the flows of goods, people, and capital. What has largely been ignored is whether individuals also care about rewarding or punishing foreign countries for their policies on these subjects…
Journal Article
If individuals evaluate outcomes relative to the status quo, then a social planner may limit redistribution from rich to poor even in the absence of moral hazard. We present two experiments suggesting that individuals, placed in the position of a social planner, do in fact respect the reference points of others. First, subjects are given the…
Journal Article

This paper provides an introduction and "user guide" to Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs for empirical researchers. It presents the basic theory behind the research design, details when RD is likely to be valid or invalid given economic incentives, explains why it is considered a "quasi-experimental" design, and summarizes different ways …

Journal Article
A regression discontinuity (RD) research design is appropriate for program evaluation problems in which treatment status (or the probability of treatment) depends on whether an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. In many applications the treatment-determining covariate is discrete. This makes it impossible to compare outcomes for…
Journal Article
I develop model of policy making in complex domains where bureaucrats find it very difficult to establish autonomous sources of expertise so that regulators are highly dependent on the regulated industry. Such policy environments create trade-offs between expertise and autonomy. In the model, a legislative principal decides whether to delegate…
Journal Article
Our earlier article established that pairs of democracies trade more freely than country-pairs composed of a democracy & an autocracy (Mansfield, Milner, & Rosendorff 2000). Xinyuan Dai (2002) incorrectly asserts that our conclusion depends on the preferences of the decision makers who formulate trade policy. We show that Dai fails to accurately…
Journal Article
Political economists point to the levels of economic development, poverty, and income inequality as the most important determinants of political regimes. The authors present empirical evidence suggesting a robust and negative correlation between the presence of a sizable natural resource sector and the level of democracy in Africa. They argue that…
Journal Article
This paper develops axiomatically a revealed preference theory of reference-dependent choice behavior. Instead of taking the refer-ence for an agent as exogenously given in the description of a choice problem, we suitably relax the Weak Axiom of Revealed Preference to obtain, endogenously, the existence of reference alternatives as well as the…
Journal Article
Fluctuations in the price of oil and the contemporaneous political changes in oil-producing countries have raised an important question about the link between oil rents, political institutions, and civil liberties. This article presents a simple model of the relationship between resource income and political freedom and, using an instrumental…
Journal Article
A social choice function is robustly implementable if there is a mechanism under which the process of iteratively eliminating strictly dominated messages lead to outcomes that agree with the social choice function for all beliefs at every type profile. In an interdependent-value environment with single-crossing preferences, we identify a…
Journal Article
The mechanism design literature assumes too much common knowledge of the environment among the players and planner. We relax this assumption by studying mechanism design on richer type spaces. We ask when ex post implementation is equivalent to interim (or Bayesian) implementation for all possible type spaces. The equivalence holds in the case of…
Journal Article
In a general interdependent preference environment, we characterize when two payoff types can be distinguished by their rationalizable strategic choices without any prior knowledge of their beliefs and higher order beliefs. We show that two payoff types are strategically distinguishable if and only if they satisfy a separability condition. The…
Unpublished
In this paper we reassess the literature of growth by looking at the evolution of the European economy from around 1200 to 1900. Employing a comprehensive dataset for the European continent that includes geographic and climate features (1200-1800), urbanization data (1200-1800), per capita income data in the second half of the 19th century,…
Journal Article
Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the…
Journal Article
Using a sample of battlefield data from twentieth-century wars, the author of this article tests a number of previously untested hypotheses linking battle events and the decision to end violent conflict. The author explores how factors like the distribution of power, battlefield casualties, and information that flows from the battlefield influence…
Journal Article
We show that current differences in trust levels within Africa can be traced back to the transatlantic and Indian Ocean slave trades. Combining contemporary individual-level survey data with historical data on slave shipments by ethnic group, we find that individuals whose ancestors were heavily raided during the slave trade are less trusting…
Journal Article
The truth is that hybrid regimes are a diverse lot, differing not just in the nature of their political systems but also along a whole host of other dimensions that matter for a country's prospects for democratization. [...]whether a particular country becomes more democratic or more authoritarian in the future depends not just on the nature of…
Journal Article
Despite the large increases in economic inequality since 1970, American survey respondents exhibit no increase in support for redistribution, contrary to the predictions from standard theories of redistributive preferences. We replicate these results but further demonstrate substantial heterogeneity by demographic group. In particular, the two…
Journal Article
Despite the large increases in economic inequality since 1970, American survey respondents exhibit no increase in support for redistribution, in contrast to the predictions from standard theories of redistributive preferences. We replicate these results but further demonstrate substantial heterogeneity by demographic groups. In particular, the two…
Journal Article
This is a timely and ambitious paper on an important topic. The phenomenon of social sorting and its role in human capital transmission is one that every parent and homeowner has direct experience with. On the other hand, the economic research tying it to {$\backslash$textquotedblleft}larger{$\backslash$textquotedblright} issues of national…
Journal Article
We model the transition from a chaotic status quo to a more orderly political regime as a two-stage game involving two warring factions & the citizens. The warring factions move first & decide the form of government by (1) inviting an external arbitrator, (2) choosing the people as arbitrator, ie, democratizing, or (3) maintaining the status quo…
Journal Article
In this paper, we address empirically the trade-offs involved in choosing between bureaucrats and politicians. In order to do this, we map institutions of selection and retention of public officials to the type of public officials they induce. We do this by specifying a collective decision-making model, and exploiting its equilibrium information…